It simply makes more sense to just put a full (even more so than iPhone's Mobile Safari) Web browser and, at least a somewhat more, complete operating system on a device like a cell phone that nearly three-hundred million people in the United States alone already carry with them on a regular basis. The iPhone actually comes very close to this. Essentially, all a phone would need to fulfill these requirements and be just as good as having a UMPC or Eee PC is to have all of the features of the iPhone, in addition to a full Web browser and a full OS. The key points that the current iPhone's software lacks are the ability to view all of the Web 2.0 content on any page on the Internet, the ability to download any kind of file, including additional software, and, most importantly, the ability to easily develop and release applications for that device in order to expand its functionality. The operating system itself needs to be very flexible and easily allow features to be added via of 3rd-party software. The iPhone will be adding support for 3rd-party apps soon, but only from Apple approved developers. That's not enough, anyone needs to be able to develop and release software apps for the devices. Of course, they also need to support much faster mobile broadband, which will come with 4th Generation wireless technologies, especially LTE (Long Term Evolution) around 2011.
I believe that within the next few years, we will see a major shift in the cell phone industry, which in part has already been sparked by the inception of the iPhone, toward devices that more and more resemble a mobile computer. They will have complete operating systems with many interesting (and some nearly useless) features just as desktop and laptop computers today, complete with full Internet browsers, and extensive third-party application support to enable even more features and mobile gaming. Ultra-fast wireless broadband will accompany this array of new features with speeds of 100 Mbps or more (12 times faster than the average fastest wired broadband of today). These new devices will also have elaborate touch screens which will provide a brilliant user experience. Anything you can do on a computer, you will be able to do on your cell phone, or whatever they end up being called. However, as cell phones resemble computers more and more, security risks increase, but I'll save that for another day.
[Update]: Just a slight clarification...
First, I meant that future laptops would be a combination of ultra-portables and subnotebooks, hence the mention of both the MacBook Air and the Eee PC. Second, they won't be exactly like the current ones, but the general size and mobility factors will be something similar, only with huge upgrades in computing power, screen resolution, and other various factors. You can think of today's models like the early laptops of the 1990s. The future laptops will be like laptops today are, compared with those original models. Finally, Windows Mobile is a good platform, which does support 3G data connections, 3rd-party development, close-to-full Internet browsers, and many other goodies, but it's user interface, or the user interface of any other phone on the market today (including how you interact with that interface, such as via a touch-screen), is not even comparable to that of the iPhone. I'm not saying that the iPhone is the answer to the future, but it comes closer than anything else to this point in terms of software features. There will come a newer device that supports all of the features I mentioned in the original post, in addition to many others.
2 comments:
Hmm...
I've been using PDAs for several years, and they've had PDA phones for awhile. The Treo popularized the concept (so did, to some extent, the Blackberry) though the iPhone brought it down to the non-techy consumer level. Palm loves Apple now because the iPhone is more expensive than their own Centro. Which means if someone doesn't want to pay $199 for an iPhone they pay $49 for a Centro and Palm gets a sale.
The iPhone isn't a device that's as revolutionary as people think. There were smartphones before, it's just that Apple puts their logo on something and people go gaga over it. That simple. Though Apple did the product well enough that most people can use it.
Also, it's not quite fair to lump the Macbook Air in with subnotebooks like the Eee PC, the HP MiniNote and Dell's upcoming E computer. On the one hand you have a high-performance ultraportable with a screen as large as some consumer notebooks, and a full keyboard, with a heavy price premium over similar-spec'd notebooks that are thicker and heavier, and on the other you have a sub-sized, cramped-keyboard, low-power device for web browsing and, if you have small hands, e-mailing taking notes, that sort of thing.
My experience with subnotebooks is the Asus Eee 900. For the fifteen or so minutes I used it I noticed that, while the screen was legible and the computer generally well-suited to basic tasks (not including browsing high-quality video sites), the keyboard was atrociously small. I have relatively big hands (long fingers, that is) and I had to resort to typing with my thumbs! The problem was, the keyboard was spongy enough that even that didn't really work out.
Ultraportable notebooks on the other hand, like the Lenovo U110, the Toshiba R500 and the Macboo Air, have higher-resolution screens that are capable of watching 720p HD video, enough processing power to watch 720p HD video generally speaking, and keyboards that arent quite as atrocious. My Macbook Air, for example, as a perfectly serviceable keyboard, though it's mushier than my aluminum iMac unit, which I've grown to like over the six months or so I've had it.
Don't get me wrong, mobile computing is the future. It's just that the iPhone wasn't the first mobile computer, nor will it be the last, and DO NOT confuse a subnotebook with an ultraportable.
P.S. I have high speed data, everyone-can-develop apps and more on my WIndows Mobile phone. The only problem about it being mentioned in the article is that it isn't made by Apple Inc. Grr.
First, I meant that future laptops would be a combination of ultra-portables and subnotebooks, hence the mention of both the MacBook Air and the Eee PC. Second, they won't be exactly like the current ones, but the general size and mobility factors will be something similar, only with huge upgrades in computing power, screen resolution, and other various factors. You can think of today's models like the early laptops of the 1990s. The future laptops will be like laptops today are, compared with those original models. Finally, Windows Mobile is a good platform, which does support 3G data connections, 3rd-party development, close-to-full Internet browsers, and many other goodies, but it's user interface, or the user interface of any other phone on the market today (including how you interact with that interface, such as via a touch-screen), is not even comparable to that of the iPhone. I'm not saying that the iPhone is the answer to the future, but it comes closer than anything else to this point in terms of software features. There will come a newer device that supports all of the features I mentioned in the original post, in addition to many others.
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